Byline: Drew Winter and Kevin Kelly

Five years from now, the 2003 North American International Auto Show may well be remembered as the turning point for hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles (HEVs).

HEVs still are considered in many engineering circles to be overly complicated contraptions that represent the worst of both worlds for internal combustion and electric propulsion systems. Nevertheless, the world's three largest auto makers showed last January they are committed to pushing the technology into mainstream, high-volume U.S. vehicles - if they can get consumers to buy them.

General Motors Corp., the world's largest auto maker, announced it would make hybrid technology available on up to 1 million of its cars and trucks by 2007. Toyota Motor Corp., the world's third largest auto maker - which says it has a goal of selling 300,000 HEVs globally by mid-decade - showed off a hybrid version of its new RX 330 cross/utility vehicle (CUV). When launched in two years, Toyota promises it will deliver the performance of a V-8 and the fuel economy of a compact car - a potentially irresistible combination for American consumers.

The world's No.2 auto maker, Ford Motor Co., displayed a hybrid version of its Escape CUV (announced last year) that is due late this year, plus an HEV car that features a further evolution of the concept: a hydrogen-burning internal combustion engine working in concert with electric motors. Ford and some other manufacturers say such a setup could be an important "bridge" technology for the introduction of hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles.

Meanwhile, Honda Motor Co. Ltd. now is selling two hybrid cars, including the Civic Hybrid, considered to be the most advanced and consumer-friendly HEV introduced so far.

Although HEV proponents are buoyed by the prospects in the U.S. market, there is no interest from the market that should want them most: Europe.

Usually environmentally conscious and faced with fuel prices three times those of the U.S., Western Europe would seem the ideal location to launch HEVs in high volumes. Instead auto makers there show little interest in getting on the bandwagon.

BMW AG, Volkswagen AG, Mercedes-Benz AG and even GM's own Adam Opel AG contend that diesel powertrains, which make up about 40% of the European new car market, are the real solution to emissions and fuel efficiency challenges.

Most are waiting for U.S. regulators to get onboard and understand the benefits of diesels, an area where the Europeans could dominate if the U.S. eases its emissions standards and oil companies make cleaner diesel fuel available.

The European manufacturers contend that hybrid vehicles are forced to carry too much weight by virtue of their dual electric and internal combustion powertrains.

"Hybrids, in our summation, are in the end the worst compromise, because you put everything in the car that has to be prepared for all situations. You add weight and you deteriorate performance," BMW Chairman Helmut Panke says. "We are convinced the hybrid way is just something like a 'wash me, but don't get me wet' type of solution."

Hybrids may cut vehicle emissions and reduce U.S. reliance on foreign oil, but the Europeans have a point: HEVs still present major hurdles that promise a serious case of heartburn for their advocates.

Among them:

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Real world fuel economy and emissions that are far less than advertised, and in some driving cycles only marginally better than comparable cars with conventional powertrains.

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Costs that are $1,000 to $5,000 more than conventional powertrains - on average, too high to be offset by fuel-cost savings even with today's $2,000 tax break in the U.S.

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Modest sales, despite massive positive publicity.

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Battery issues that could impact warranty costs, customer satisfaction and vehicle residual values.

Of all the announcements GM made at the Detroit auto show in January, none was more dramatic than its promise to offer hybrid technology on up to 1 million vehicles by 2007.

Until then, GM had been relatively quiet on the subject of HEVs and other near-term strategies to reduce fuel consumption and emissions. It preferred to focus attention instead on its development of hydrogen-powered fuel cells, a promising long-term strategy that has been criticized because it isn't expected to produce salable vehicles until 2010.

Environmentalists also have roundly criticized GM for falling behind Toyota and Honda in HEV development.

Larry Burns, GM's vice president of research, development and planning, says the company's HEV strategy has been in the works for years and isn't a reaction to critics, Toyota and Honda's success or the threat of tough new corporate average fuel economy mandates on light trucks.

Instead, he argues that hybrids will play a crucial role in laying the groundwork and building a supply base for fuel cell-powered vehicles. "They are a move toward the electrification of the vehicle," Burns says in an interview, explaining that HEV electronics and software are more similar to those used for fuel cell-powered vehicles than conventional internal-combustion engines (ICEs). Ramping up high-volume production of HEVs is an ideal way to gear up suppliers for high-volume fuel cell production, Burns says.